Tuesday, October 7, 2008


Will he hand it over?

Will he or will he not?

That is the question the whole nation is waiting to be answered.

In the next 48 hours, we will find out whether Datuk Seri Abdullah Hj Ahmad Badawi will declare either to contest or to stand down in the next UMNO elections due to be held in March of 2009.

Let’s play with the different possibilities available.


The PM’s back is against the wall. He tried his best to make the necessary and promised changes but they were slow in coming and didn’t quite meet the target by the last election date. At the same time, national unity nosed-dived under his watch that open animosity between races began to rear its ugly head and the position of the Malays and Islam were threatened for the first time in many years. He lost his own State of Penang along with 5 others and got whipped in the recent by-election in his homestate by his nemesis reflecting people’s rejection for his leadership.

He sees the facts point blank and decides to resign gracefully and save UMNO from further embarrassment. He does so by announcing his retirement in March of 2009 and not offering himself to contest as President of the Party in March of the same.

The Presidential race will be between Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Dato’ Sri Najib Razak. In this scenario, Najib will have the edge as many have declared their willingness to nominate him for President if Mr Badawi decides to leave.


The PM’s mind is poisoned by influential UMNO leaders into thinking that he is stuck in a corner, and there is no way out except the honorable one which is to withdraw from office. He gets the Supreme Council to agree to postpone the Convention to March 2008 and has 2 weeks to gauge the truth on the wavering support for him before he declares his position.

He realizes that even if he withdraws now, people will not be grateful to him for his sacrifice and will always see him as a failed Prime Minister. He later discovers that he will have the minimum required number of nominations to defend his position with more than 3 months to consolidate his stand using all the necessary resources available to him as Prime Minister of Malaysia, even if it means having to remove Najib from his current position.

He thinks for instance if he gets 60 nominations while Najib gets more and refuses to withdraw, he will have the power to retire Najib as Deputy Prime Minister and replace him with another candidate, possibly Zahid Hamidi and with one stroke catapult the latter as the strongest contender for the Deputy President’s post. At the same time he reshuffles the whole Cabinet and also retires Muhyiddin to cut off his authority and bring him down to size. With most of the UMNO leaders save Muhyiddin out to save their own necks and backsides, they will very quickly cuddle back up to the PM and seek his forgiveness and slurp all over his hand.

It is a known fact in UMNO that the majority of the delegates’ loyalty lies with those in office. For example, Musa Hitam got whipped by a less polished politician in Ghafar Baba who was the Deputy Prime Minister while Musa was the incumbent Deputy President defending his position in the party but was out of the Cabinet.

In addition, the PM’s counselors will also advise him that if he wins without Najib’s withdrawal from the race, naturally the transition plan will become null and void and he will be stronger than he ever was in UMNO.

The PM decides to contest.

The Presidential race will be between Pak Lah, Najib and Tengku Razaleigh. The winner will be one of the first two.


PM decides to run but hands over the power to Najib in March. Najib believes him and decides to remain Deputy till then because he’d like to be able to choose his deputy as opposed to having it force fed if he goes for broke and Muhyiddin wins the number two spot.

In the meantime, Muhyiddin too gets enough nominations for Deputy President and doesn’t quit. Najib will be frozen because his supporters who are angry with him for not contesting for President will support Muhyiddin out of spite.

The Presidential race will be between Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and the PM.

Tengku Razaleigh will win hands down with Muhyiddin possibly as his number two.


What do you think?

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