TEST FOR UMNO AT IT’S OWN FORTRESS

We begin by observing the previous results. 

 

Election Date: September 28, 2024. 

Nomination Date: September 14, 2024. 

 

Looking at the immediate past results, BN should be able to win by a five-digit majority this time, given that BN and PH have merged at the federal level. However, history reminds us that in politics, anything can happen, and overconfidence can ultimately backfire. 

Several factors will be decisive: 

• Voter turnout, and
• Candidates 

VOTER TURNOUT 

Even though PH and BN have merged at the federal level, this alliance is not fully reflected in Johor, as UMNO/BN won more than two-thirds of the seats on their own in the State Assembly, and PH representatives are absent from the State EXCO. 

This could be a factor if PH supporters are not fully motivated to turn out to vote because the candidate is from BN. And if they do vote, will they be to support or punish BN? We’ll know the answer on election day. 

CANDIDATES 

Although unconfirmed, names being mentioned include the UMNO Division Chief, the Acting Wanita's Chief, the Youth Chief, and a popular celebrity/ activist from Kluang. It is also possible, though risky, that UMNO's leadership might nominate one of its Supreme Council members originally from Kluang. 

The Division Chief is a veteran, who previously served as a State Assemblyman and Exco member, and now tasked with overseeing the Mahkota by-election. However, it should be noted that people today crave for new faces coupled with youth, rather than individuals who have previously served and lost in the past elections. 

 

The Acting Wanita's Chief might be considered to "replace" the vacant seat following the death of the former Wanita’s Chief, the late Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain. Wanita Umno might demand for the seat, especially after the youth wing was given a chance in Nenggiri and successfully won the recent by-election. 

Both the Youth Chief and the Celebrity/ Activist have their strengths to be fielded. However, the advantage seems to lie with the Youth Chief as he defeated the latter in a previous race for UMNO Youth Chief in the division. 

 

ANALYSIS 

If this election turns out to be tight, UMNO’s most popular candidate among the public, should be considered, even if he/she is without a formal position in the division. 

However, with BN potentially relying on additional votes from PH, the chosen candidate must come from one of the office bearers in the local UMNO division. 

 

This is to maintain the dignity and stature of the Division. Otherwise, the significance of holding a post in UMNO would be diminished. The greatest concern now is if an "outsider" is chosen, it would risk internal sabotage or lack of cooperation from the division’s machinery. 

FINAL THOUGHTS 

Whatever The Final Decision, It Should Be Supported With Full Loyalty And Not Insubordination. May Allah SWT Guide The Leadership In Making The Best Decision For The Party, Free From External Pressures, For The Continuity Of UMNO In The Country’s Politics.