Chinese Votes In Mahkota

Of late, I’ve been reading and hearing too much noise about the Chinese being reluctant to vote BN in the Mahkota by-election this weekend.

This noise primarily comes from the DAP, who is using a recent issue regarding an UMNO leader’s reaction to a statement by a DAP MP. Emphasis is on the word, “reaction”.

UMNO is used to being blamed by the Chinese party representatives in the coalition especially during election time. Perhaps, this may serve as leverage, political extortion or an excuse for their foreseeable failures in the election. I’ll leave it to the esteemed political observers to decide which if any.

Today, it’s DAP. Then, it was MCA that played the blame game for their failure to win the Chinese votes. We’re immune to it. 

DAP is demanding for an apology from the UMNO Youth Chief for his reaction to their MP’s statement. 

Would the Chinese voters be happy and/ or forgiving after the apology is made? Not by a long shot if history is anything to go by. It’s like déjà vu.

In 2008, a former UMNO Youth Chief was asked to apologise for unsheathing the Keris in an UMNO Assembly. He duly obliged and apologised profusely but the Chinese kept on harping on the issue for years after that using it as a tool on UMNO’s conscience. 

So I dare say that the same will occur in this instance. Even if an apology is given, the stats will remain the same among the Chinese voters in Mahkota. It is up to the DAP to convince them to look at the bigger picture, much like how UMNO managed to sway the Malays when it was a DAP candidate on the ballot.

The alternative to BN is PN. They must remember that Umno saved the unity government, giving DAP and the Chinese community a share of power in government when UMNO could have gone the other way and still play second fiddle in the other government leaving them out in the cold.

UMNO has made a strong and positive gesture by choosing a Mandarin speaking candidate to help serve and communicate with the community better. 

It is a dangerous wish for the Chinese community to vote PN to punish BN. It will be etched in the UMNO memory bank for the remainder of this government’s term.

If their voters are adamant in the punishment, perhaps in the next GE, BN/PN will make their wish come true, if an all Malay government (barring two seats) comes in like the administration in 2020. 

Was Life Better For Their Community Then?

Reflect On It.

TEST FOR UMNO AT IT’S OWN FORTRESS

We begin by observing the previous results. 

 

Election Date: September 28, 2024. 

Nomination Date: September 14, 2024. 

 

Looking at the immediate past results, BN should be able to win by a five-digit majority this time, given that BN and PH have merged at the federal level. However, history reminds us that in politics, anything can happen, and overconfidence can ultimately backfire. 

Several factors will be decisive: 

• Voter turnout, and
• Candidates 

VOTER TURNOUT 

Even though PH and BN have merged at the federal level, this alliance is not fully reflected in Johor, as UMNO/BN won more than two-thirds of the seats on their own in the State Assembly, and PH representatives are absent from the State EXCO. 

This could be a factor if PH supporters are not fully motivated to turn out to vote because the candidate is from BN. And if they do vote, will they be to support or punish BN? We’ll know the answer on election day. 

CANDIDATES 

Although unconfirmed, names being mentioned include the UMNO Division Chief, the Acting Wanita's Chief, the Youth Chief, and a popular celebrity/ activist from Kluang. It is also possible, though risky, that UMNO's leadership might nominate one of its Supreme Council members originally from Kluang. 

The Division Chief is a veteran, who previously served as a State Assemblyman and Exco member, and now tasked with overseeing the Mahkota by-election. However, it should be noted that people today crave for new faces coupled with youth, rather than individuals who have previously served and lost in the past elections. 

 

The Acting Wanita's Chief might be considered to "replace" the vacant seat following the death of the former Wanita’s Chief, the late Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain. Wanita Umno might demand for the seat, especially after the youth wing was given a chance in Nenggiri and successfully won the recent by-election. 

Both the Youth Chief and the Celebrity/ Activist have their strengths to be fielded. However, the advantage seems to lie with the Youth Chief as he defeated the latter in a previous race for UMNO Youth Chief in the division. 

 

ANALYSIS 

If this election turns out to be tight, UMNO’s most popular candidate among the public, should be considered, even if he/she is without a formal position in the division. 

However, with BN potentially relying on additional votes from PH, the chosen candidate must come from one of the office bearers in the local UMNO division. 

 

This is to maintain the dignity and stature of the Division. Otherwise, the significance of holding a post in UMNO would be diminished. The greatest concern now is if an "outsider" is chosen, it would risk internal sabotage or lack of cooperation from the division’s machinery. 

FINAL THOUGHTS 

Whatever The Final Decision, It Should Be Supported With Full Loyalty And Not Insubordination. May Allah SWT Guide The Leadership In Making The Best Decision For The Party, Free From External Pressures, For The Continuity Of UMNO In The Country’s Politics.

DUN MAHKOTA: UMNO AKAN DIUJI DI NEGERI KUBUNYA

Kita mulakan dengan keputusan terakhir dahulu.

Tarikh mengundi 28hb September 2024. 

Tarikh pencalonan 14hb September 2024. 

 

Kalau kita lihat keputusan lepas, BN seharusnya boleh menang dengan majoriti 5 angka kali ini kerana BN dan PH sudah bergabung di peringkat pusat. Tetapi sejarah mengingatkan kita bahawa dalam politik, apa apa pun boleh berlaku dan keyakinan yang keterlaluan boleh menghukum kita akhirnya. 

Namun beberapa perkara akan menjadi penentu: 

1. Jumlah yang keluar mengundi, dan 

2. Calon. 

JUMLAH KELUAR MENGUNDI 

Walaupun PH dan BN telah bergabung di peringkat pusat, namun penyatuan ini tidak diterjemahkan secara langsung di bumi Johor memandangkan UMNO/BN memenangi lebih 2/3 kerusi dalam Dewan Undangan Negeri, dan tiada wakil PH dalam Mesyuarat Jawatankuasa Kerajaan negeri. 

Ini mungkin akan menjadi faktor jika pihak PH tidak bersungguh2 untuk menyeru penyokong mereka keluar mengundi kerana calon yang bertanding adalah dari parti BN. Dan jika penyokong mereka keluar mengundi, adakah mereka akan membantu atau menghukum BN? Jawapannya akan terserlah pada hari undi kelak. 

CALON 

Walaupun tidak dapat disahihkan, antara nama yang disebut-sebut adalah Ketua UMNO Bahagian, Pemangku Ketua Wanita, Ketua Pemuda dan seorang bekas penghibur/ aktivis Kluang yg agak tersohor. Juga tidak mustahil jika UMNO Pusat dengan bahayanya mencalonkan seorang dari ahli Majlis Kerja Tertingginya yg berasal dari Kluang. 

Ketua Bahagian boleh dikatakan seorang veteran yg pernah menjadi ADUN dan EXCO Negeri yang kini ditugaskan sebagai Pengarah Operasi PRK DUN Mahkota. Akan tetapi, harus diingat bahwa rakyat kini mendahagakan pelapis dan darah muda untuk diangkat menjadi wakil mereka dan bukan lagi individu lama yang pernah berkhidmat dan kalah di PRU sebelum ini. 

Pemangku Ketua Wanita pula mungkin dipertimbangkan untuk “mengganti” kerusi yang kosong berikutan kematian bekas Ketua Wanitanya, AlMarhumah Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain. Mereka mungkin menuntut kerusi itu di atas kuota Wanita lebih-lebih lagi setelah di Nenggiri, calon Pemuda UMNO telah diberi tempat dan seterusnya memenangi pilihanraya kecil tempohari. 

Kedua2 Ketua Pemuda dan Penghibur/Aktivis pula ada kekuatan masing-masing dan boleh diketengahkan. Namun “advantage” memihak kepada Ketua Pemuda kerana beliau telah mengalahkan Penghibur/Aktivis tersebut dalam pertandingan yg lepas untuk kedudukan Ketua Pemuda UMNO Bahagian. 

ANALISA 

Jika pilihanraya ini sengit, maka calon UMNO yg paling terkenal di kalangan rakyat, walaupun tidak memegang jawatan dalam Bahagian, harus dipertimbangkan. 

Namun dalam keadaan yang agak selesa kini memandangkan BN mungkin boleh mengharapkan kepada tambahan undi dari PH jika mereka jujur, calon yang dipilih sewajibnya datang dari salah seorang pemegang jawatan di dalam UMNO Bahagian tersebut. 

Ini memberi makna kepada darjat jawatan dan perjuangan individu yang memegang jawatan itu secara rasmi. Kalau tidak, nilai perjuangan dan yang memegang jawatan dalam parti UMNO itu akan hilang maknanya. 

Yang paling dibimbangi pula jika “orang luar” dari kepimpinan UMNO dipilih walaupun beliau seorang ahli parti dan terkenal, risiko sabotaj atau kurang kerjasama dari jentera Bahagian boleh berlaku. 

Akhir kalam, semua ini akan terbukti di petang 28hb September kelak. 

Apapun Keputusan Muktamad Yang Dibuat Harus Kita Sambut Dengan Sokongan Yang Ikhlas Dan Setia.  

Semoga Diberi Taufiq Dan Hidayah Allah SWT Kepada Pucuk Pimpinan UMNO Dalam Membuat Keputusan Yang Terbaik Untuk Parti Tanpa Menghiraukan Tekanan Dari Mana2 Pihak Yang Luar Dari Politik Demi Kesinambungan UMNO/ BN Dalam Politik Negara.