THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND MALAYSIA

By FAUZIAH ISMAIL

The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. 

Voters in each state and the District of Columbia will select electors to the Electoral College, who will subsequently elect a president and vice president for four-year terms. The winners will be inaugurated as the 47th president and 50th vice president of the United States on January 20, 2025. 

 

Presidential candidate Kamala Harris is the 49th Vice President. Fifteen of the previous 49 vice presidents became presidents. However, eight of them assumed office upon the president's death. She is the 11th sitting vice president to seek office. Only six of the 15 vice presidents who became president were elected, while only four of the prior 10 campaigns of serving vice presidents were successful. 

Few previous presidents have run for their old posts, or anything else, while leaving office. Donald Trump is the second former president to lose a presidential election and run for re-election as a major party candidate. Read more here.

 

 If Harris wins, she will be the first female US president. She has already made history in the US as the first woman, black woman, and person of South Asian origin to serve as vice president. 

The outcome of this presidential election could affect Malaysia in a number of ways. 

The impact will be shaped by the broader geopolitical context and specific policies of the administration especially foreign policy priorities and approach to international relations. Key areas include diplomatic ties, which could impact Malaysia's strategic partners; trade policies that could impact exports and investments; its stance on Asia-Pacific security, particularly with regard to China; foreign aid or development programmes and on climate change. Overall, the impact will be shaped by the broader geopolitical context and specific policies of the administration. 

Over the last two weeks, the candidates' positions have made their stance known, and their surrogates have highlighted them in their assessments on CNN and Fox, of which many Malaysians are following ardently in the last lap of campaigning by both Harris and Trump. 

 

Harris supports initiatives that address issues such as wealth inequality, healthcare access, and minimising climate change. Trump prioritises tax cuts, deregulation, and a strong nationalist approach to trade, in addition to promoting economic growth through business incentives and a firm stance on immigration. 

Harris may place a higher priority on developing Malaysia's economic ties with Southeast Asia, potentially leading to increased trade and collaboration. Trump's "America First" approach might affect Malaysia's export-driven economy, particularly in the electronics and palm oil sectors, leading to higher tariffs or trade wars. 

Harris' consistent and cooperative US foreign policy may result in more US investment in Malaysia, notably in technology and infrastructure. As global economic uncertainty grows, Trump's isolationist US stance may result in reduced foreign direct investment in Malaysia. 

The US is Malaysia’s third largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totalling US$65.55 billion in 2023. In terms of foreign direct investment, Malaysia recorded net inflows of US$8.58 billion in 2023 in sectors such as oil and gas, petrochemical, semiconductor, consumer, and industrial electronics. 

Harris' commitment to multilateralism may strengthen regional security dynamics, benefiting Malaysia's strategic goals in the South China Sea, but Trump's government may take a more transactional approach, jeopardising Malaysia's strategic ties. 

 

Based on these assumptions, a Harris victory might lead to more constructive cooperation, with potential economic benefits for Malaysia, but a Trump victory could result in obstacles like trade conflicts and isolationist policies. 

 

Singaporean investment firm Temasek, one of the largest state-owned investors with a portfolio of S$389 billion, has also issued a cautionary view on the impact of a Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election. 

Temasek International’s Chief Investment Officer Rohit Sipahimalani suggested in a Bloomberg interview that a second White House for Trump may not be as favourable for the global economy and financial markets as commonly believed. 

It would be interesting to see if our own national sovereign wealth fund, Khazanah Nasional, shares the same view. 

The writer worked as a journalist for 38 years, holding a number of senior editorial roles at mainstream newspapers namely Business Times and New Straits Times. She retired as NST Executive Editor in 2022.

• The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of The Patriot.